We Built a 506-Race Election Forecast, Then Had Claude, ChatGPT and Grok Call Every Close Race
justin_hart · x · 2026-10-27
Justin Hart's Rational Ground launched its 2026 forecast covering all 506 races on the November ballot (35 Senate seats, 36 governors, all 435 House districts). Every day the model ingests the latest polls, campaign money and district maps, then simulates the election 20,000 times; each race shows its inputs—poll weights, fundraising, outside spending. It currently draws on 866 race-level polls (with per-pollster house-effect calibration) and 473 generic-ballot polls. On top of that, Claude, ChatGPT and Grok were asked to call every close race alongside the model for comparison.
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