Anthropic S-1: $321.4B lease obligations, $120.5B SpaceX deal, IPO odds 90% for November

ivan_bezdomny · x · 2026-10-27

Anthropic's S-1 filing for a Nasdaq IPO (ticker ANT) reveals future lease obligations jumped sixfold to $321.4B, non-cancelable purchase commitments hit $265.6B, and total compute agreements reach $637B — headlined by a deal worth up to $120.5B with SpaceX/xAI for Nvidia GPUs ($3.1B/month after Dec 2026 delivery, cancellable on 90 days' notice in early 2027), plus $44.6B Nscale, $41.3B Lambda, >$20B AMD deals and an estimated $125–150B in TPU spending through 2031.

Funding: up to $77B in new note facilities (Broadcom $42B, Google $20B, Amazon $15B); revolver expanded from $3.3B to $15B; minimum liquidity covenant raised from $500M to $5B.
Financials: H1 revenue $16.3B (+1,300% YoY), free cash flow $3.4B, usage-based revenue 80% of the total; cloud-marketplace sales at 48% of revenue (vs 11% in 2023); 11,900+ accounts paying $100K+, top-5 customers down to 25% of revenue. H1 net loss of $80.7B driven by $72.4B in noncash convertible charges; no Q3 statements included, which Gary Marcus flagged.
Regulatory: October FTC civil investigative demand; $1.5B copyright settlement; fight over the U.S. 'supply-chain risk' designation continues after a 2-1 D.C. Circuit ruling.
Underwriters Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan target the week of Nov 16; Polymarket puts November IPO odds at 90%. Nic Carter calls the numbers 'sensational' while questioning the $1.5T valuation at 22x Q3 revenue.

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Anthropic S-1: $321.4B lease obligations, $120.5B SpaceX deal, IPO odds 90% for November

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