Apollo's 'zero AI payoff' report torn apart: flat margins can't measure AI returns
JHochderffer · x · 2026-10-26
An Apollo report claiming AI has delivered "zero financial payoff" outside the Mag 7 is facing a sharp methodological rebuttal. Apollo argued that flat profit margins and revenue per employee outside the Mag 7 show corporate America isn't benefiting from AI spend.
- The rebuttal: to measure a variable's contribution you must compare companies using MORE AI vs LESS AI — a flat aggregate across all companies cannot answer that question
- Splitting Mag 7 vs everyone else is also the wrong unit of analysis, since Mag 7 are mostly AI sellers, not buyers
- Another commenter notes agentic AI is less than a year old and AI has reached under 1% of its potential even with zero further model improvement
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