AI could compress 4-year drug discovery and lift trial success to 12-15%
sebkrier · x · 2026-10-26
An AI-vs-biology debate: the quoted post notes believers in scaling laws think AI progress will yield genuine medical discoveries, while biologists call a "bitter lesson for biology" absurd, saying reliable human toxicology simulation is 5-10 years away.
@alexpeys argues for cautious optimism without a magic box: tighten the lab loop (Monday design, Tuesday test), combine multi-stage data and health records into general models instead of one-task wonders, and build platforms for small teams to iterate fast. Current baseline: 4 years discovery plus 5+ years trials at a 92% failure rate — just compressing discovery and nudging success to 12-15% would be huge, before any delivery-side gains.
Related event: AI Camp vs Biology Camp: Can AI Really Accelerate Drug Discovery?(4 posts)→
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