AI experts couple strong benchmark forecasts with low-resolution folk models of society, sparking bottlenecks debate
random_walker · x · 2026-10-25
Philosopher Dan Williams highlights a common blind spot: people skilled at ML and predicting benchmark performance often lack understanding of real-world friction and complexity, pairing impressive AI capability forecasts with low-resolution folk models of society — producing many silly predictions of explosive societal impact.
Quoting economist Afinetheorem's thread on bottlenecks: economists have been exactly right that fast tech change hasn't produced big extra growth; a group he organized was deemed crazy >2 years ago when telling AI labs of only 1pp extra growth per year through 2030, and bottlenecks are still not understood.
Related event: Economist Vindicated: AI's Growth Impact Still Bottlenecked at ~1pp(10 posts)→
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