Benchmark data shows iterative optimization hitting a wall, not recursive self-improvement
gerardsans · x · 2026-10-25
Analyzing the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, top models cluster tightly between 52-58 with a second tier from 46-42. Newly released Kimi K3.1 Pro slots into the upper band without redefining it. Growth is linear with diminishing returns (+1), not exponential (×10) — the signature of ordinary iterative optimization under shared constraints, not recursive self-improvement. No runaway separation, no self-sustaining acceleration loop in the public data, yet IPO narratives still price in the take-off the charts don't support.
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