CS papers near 18,000/month, up 10x since 2016, led by complexity and algorithms

burny_tech · x · 2026-10-25

A trend analysis of monthly new CS papers shows output growing from 1,500/month in 2016 to 18,000 in early 2026 — more than a tenfold rise.

• The fitted trend uses exp(a+bt+cmonth) to account for seasonal effects; the upward trend is clear but doesn't yet override seasonality (dips around summers, peaks late in the year).
• The biggest gains come from computational complexity, algorithms, and game theory.
• The 2026 segment is an extrapolated forecast of roughly 12,000–14,000 papers/month.

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