Samotsvety forecasters put max unemployment by 2030 at ~9.7% aggregate (7-9% typical)
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-10-25
Members of the Samotsvety forecasting team casually estimated peak unemployment between now and 2030, aggregating to about 9.7%, with individual estimates of 6.5%, 7.3%, 7.8%, 8.5%, 8.5%, 9% and one outlier at 30%. The attached FRED chart of historical US unemployment serves as context for how severe such a spike would be.
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