Compute contracts vs reality: Nscale has only 5% of contracted GPUs live, TeraWulf 12%
AccBalanced · x · 2026-10-25
A data-heavy thread on AI compute supply: demand is no longer in question—contracts are signed, and major neoclouds have contracted at least 2.5x more compute than they currently run. The key shift is prepayments: Nebius says 70% of deals signed last quarter included prepayments covering 50-60% of build cost, so late buildout now hurts customers too, not just data center companies.
Sold vs. live today (from earnings releases and SEC filings, data through Oct 23, 2026):
- CoreWeave: 1.5 GW live of 3.7 GW contracted (41%, 2.5x)
- Core Scientific: billing on 395 MW of 1.1 GW leased (36%, 2.8x)
- IREN: delivered 50 of 200 MW owed to Microsoft (25%, 4x)
- Applied Digital: 250 MW live of 1.41 GW leased (18%, 5.6x)
- Nebius: 0.8–1 GW connected vs 5 GW year-end 2026 target (16–20%, 5–6x)
- TeraWulf: 102 MW online of 839 MW incl. 401 MW Anthropic lease (12%, 8.2x)
- Nscale: 25,000 of 461,000 GPUs active (5%, 18x)
- Cipher Digital: 0 of 700 MW HPC leases delivered
Takeaway: demand is contract-backed, but the delivery gap is far bigger than headlines suggest, and prepayment structures are starting to transfer buildout risk to buyers.
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