Quadratic fit of ECI capability scores suggests AI progress is decelerating, peaking around 2029
quadriphasic · reddit · 2026-10-25
A Reddit user fitted a quadratic trend to ECI capability scores from roughly all models released between 2023 and late 2026, showing scores climbing from 90–110 to 140–157 but with visibly decelerating growth. Extrapolated to 2029, the curve peaks around 156 near 2029.4 and then flattens, implying only 10 points of headroom left.
The chart is being shared as evidence for an AI capabilities slowdown. Note it's a single-metric quadratic extrapolation and ignores potential paradigm shifts or compute scale-ups — a discussion starter rather than a forecast.
!chart
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