Damodaran: AI's $10-15T market story is 'terrifying' — it only works if AI replaces people
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-10-25
NYU Stern's Aswath Damodaran argues AI's $10-15T TAM only materializes if AI replaces human jobs, not if it's merely a tool — a scenario implying mass white-collar job loss and shrinking purchasing power.
- Anthropic's IPO will likely be priced on run-rate revenue rather than cash flows: H1 2026 losses of $8.7B (Anthropic) and $21.6B (OpenAI), excluding non-cash charges, rule out earnings multiples.
- Justifying $1.5T-$2T for Anthropic requires very fast early growth, 30%+ operating margins, compute costs growing slower than revenue, and declining risk.
- ARR has no standard: OpenAI's $50B counts partner sales net, Anthropic's $65B counts them gross — making ARR the AI-era equivalent of dot-com eyeball counts.
Related event: Damodaran Analyzes AI Valuations and Forthcoming Anthropic IPO(3 posts)→
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