Goldman: AI could hit 1 in 11 workers, but mass layoffs await a recession
fortune · reddit · 2026-10-24
Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs says fears of imminent AI-driven layoffs have cooled since spring — but the real displacement may wait for a downturn.
- Under the bank's forecast that AI eventually lifts productivity 15% in developed economies, up to 9% of workers could be displaced during the AI transition, plus 3% from slower hiring — roughly 1 in 11 workers
- Key finding on timing: decades of data show automation-related labor disruption is limited in a healthy economy but accelerates during cyclical slowdowns
- It's Goldman's second such warning in a year: in Oct 2025 economists Mericle and Mei called "jobless growth" the likely new normal and said AI's full labor-market impact "might not become apparent until a recession hits"
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