AI-written code share points to full coding autonomy by spring 2028, argues TheZvi
TheZvi · x · 2026-10-24
TheZvi dissects a stacked chart of PRs banded by AI-written share (also touching the Gemini 4 Argon model card and Opus 5.5):
- Fully human PRs (0% AI) fell 13.1% → 3.1% in five months, halving every 2.4 months; an exponential fit never hits zero — there's always one guy.
- The two >98% AI bands grew 18.8% → 46.3%; a logistic fit crosses 50% this month, 90% by October 2027, 99% in late 2028.
- Autonomy is the sticking point: the 100% AI, <3 human turns band barely moved (7.5 → 11.9), reaching majority around spring 2028 on a logistic fit, or 100% by 2035 linearly.
- His call: the singularity is spring 2028, with 2035 for pessimists. Code-writing is saturated; what's gated is humans tiring of typing "yes, continue."
- Caveat: this is share of PRs, not share of work — cheap AI-heavy PRs inflate the denominator.
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