Napkin math: how $100M spent on Harvey inflates to $10B in asset value across the AI stack
davidyin44 · x · 2026-10-23
ZacharyDeWitt's napkin math traces how AI spend compounds into asset value up the stack:
- A law firm spends $100M on Harvey → at 40x ARR ($16B valuation on $400M ARR), that revenue marks Harvey up by $4B.
- Harvey passes $80M to Anthropic for inference → at 15x revenue ($965B on a run rate heading to $110B), that's $1.2B of Anthropic markup.
- Anthropic backs every $1 of revenue with $5 of compute commitments → $400M in new compute POs.
- Nvidia books $300M of those at 60% net margins and 30x earnings → $180M profit → $5.5B market cap.
Total: $10B in asset appreciation from a $100M contract — before even counting the cloud layer.
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