Tesla at $1.53T: report says the stock prices robotaxi and Optimus options, not the car business
pdamodaran · x · 2026-10-23
DalalBytes published a Tesla investment report rating it 58/100 Neutral. The core thesis: at current prices you're buying two options — robotaxi and Optimus — attached to a flat, profitable car company.
Key numbers
- $386.47/share, $1.53T market cap; trailing GAAP P/E 358x, forward 188x
- Q3 2026 beat expectations: revenue $28,046M, non-GAAP EPS $0.48 vs $0.45 consensus, free cash flow +$1,531M vs consensus of roughly -$4.5B
- Car business: $101B trailing revenue, 18.1% gross margin ex-credits, deliveries down two consecutive years, flat revenue
- FY2029 targets: bear $120 / base $330 / bull $620; the base case ($5.50 EPS at 60x) still sits below the current price
The market pays as if both options pay off, while the cash-generating car business would be a rounding error on any car-company math. The author finds the report "pretty realistic."
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