Mollick: AI task horizon grew from 4 minutes to 17 weeks in two years — at 50% success
luca_iaconelli · x · 2026-10-23
Ethan Mollick tracks AI capability via his own book publishing cadence: when his first AI book came out in 2024, the best AI could handle 4 minutes of human work at 50% success; by the time he submitted the Co-Existence draft it was 17 hours; two days ago at publication, it hit 17 weeks.
A replier flags the catch: the 50% success rate is doing heavy lifting — on a 17-week task, a coin flip means you might only discover failure four months later.
Related event: Mollick: AI Task Horizon Grew from 4 Minutes to 17 Weeks in Two Years(4 posts)→
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