Mollick: AI Task Horizon Grew from 4 Minutes to 17 Weeks in Two Years

Wharton professor Ethan Mollick used his two books 30 months apart to quantify AI progress: the tasks AI can complete at 50% success grew from 4 minutes of human work in 2024 to 17 weeks today, at a cost of about $241 in tokens. He clarified that AI does not actually need 17 weeks to finish such a task.

2026-10-23 ~ 2026-10-23 · 4 related posts

• Ethan Mollick: AI task horizon went from 4 minutes to 17 weeks between his two books — emollick · 2026-10-23
• Mollick: AI task horizon grew from 4 minutes to 17 weeks in two years — at 50% success — luca_iaconelli · 2026-10-23
• Ethan Mollick: AI doesn't take 17 weeks to do a 17-week task — emollick · 2026-10-23
• Mollick: AI replicated 17 weeks of human engineering work for about $241 in tokens — emollick · 2026-10-23