Lam Research pre-earnings checklist: how much of the memory capex boom reaches tool deliveries by 2027
tengyanAI · x · 2026-10-22
A pre-call checklist for Lam Research ($LRCX), prepared with Tessara AI's earnings records:
- September guidance already implies a jump: $8.10bn ± $400m guided vs $6.72bn in June (+20.5% sequentially at midpoint), non-GAAP gross margin 52% ± 1pt; December guidance needs customer delivery schedules behind it.
- NAND equipment demand quality: June NAND revenue doubled sequentially — how much is upgrades/technology conversions vs new wafer capacity? Note the $2.47bn customer-support segment mixes upgrades and equipment with service/spares, obscuring the investment cycle.
- Micron's budget vs Lam's revenue: Micron said most of its FY2027 investment increase is construction (cleanrooms available late 2028+), with some equipment spending pulled forward — bigger customer budgets only become Lam revenue via orders and delivery dates, and don't mean memory supply arrives quickly.
Core question: how much of the memory boom converts to 2027 tool deliveries vs building space for a later equipment cycle.
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