VC Megafunds Converge Into an Index: Only $11–19 of Every $100 Differed
annbordetsky · x · 2026-10-21
An analysis based on Harmonic AI data shows that of every $100 invested by the seven megafunds between 2005 and 2023, only about $11–19 matched the market-wide distribution of capital. In 2026 so far, that figure has risen to roughly $38, signaling rapid convergence among top firms.
The author argues that fewer opportunities plus more capital is driving large firms to herd into the same companies as rounds progress—piling in capital to push prices up while adding logos to their LP decks—while the underlying businesses don't get meaningfully stronger. The group has gone from differentiated firms to something resembling a VC megacap index.
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