Economist Ben Moll: double-digit AI-driven GDP growth in the next decade is extremely unlikely
ben_moll · x · 2026-10-18
Economist Ben Moll and behavioral scientist Alex Imas published a long-form piece pushing back on predictions from Dario Amodei (10-15% annual growth), Leopold Aschenbrenner (30%+), and others. They stress they are extremely bullish on AI and believe the capabilities explosion is real, but argue it won't translate into double-digit GDP growth anytime soon — AI will affect GDP with "long and variable lags."
Key points:
- Growth above 10% in the next 10-15 years is extremely unlikely; a reasonable baseline is 4-5%, which would already be massive
- Even Anthropic's own economic model only reaches double digits in its "extreme" scenario
- They address counterarguments including capital crowding-out and robotics timelines
The thread also continues a side bet with benjtodd over 17% GDP growth before 2030, with Moll noting he prefers the odds offered by gabrielunger and won't maintain multiple bets at different odds.
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