Todd: putting your forecast numbers in writing is what really counts
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-23
Continuing the forecaster thread, Ben Todd responds that Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness has insightful moments and synthesizes well, but appears to have drawn heavily on Carl Shulman and likely people like Ilya, so shouldn't get too much credit. He adds that writing your numerical forecasts down in advance matters a lot — anyone can claim they called it in hindsight.
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