LLM trading agent skips 380 of 392 calls — scoring refusals shows skipped events moved 2x random
Tasty-Mammoth5321 · reddit · 2026-10-21
A dev running a Claude-CLI crypto trading agent found it skipped 380 of 392 reviews in a week. Scoring refusals: skipped events moved 10%+ within 24h about 33% of the time vs 17% for random windows on the same coins. A second agent with loose rules still refused all 23 trades with plausible rationalizations. Key lessons: keep filtering in code, validate model outputs against the candidate, log prompts in a hash chain, score refusals against a random baseline, and beware that telling a cautious model to "use judgment" guarantees skips. He shares his prompt rewrite forcing directional hypotheses and asks how others make models take low-confidence actions for data collection.
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