Corporate token spending growth collapses from 42% to 0.2% as hyperscaler ROIC falls to 20%
SumitGup · x · 2026-10-21
Ramp data suggests the 'unlimited AI demand' story is hitting a wall:
- Corporate token spending growth collapsed from 42% in July to 0.2% in September, with monthly growth trending down from peaks of 58% since Feb 2025
- Meanwhile, trailing-12-month ROIC at the five biggest hyperscalers has fallen from 38% to 20% as capex outruns earnings
The author's takeaway: the infinite-demand thesis needs infinite returns, and the returns are heading the other way.
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