Eli Dourado: why Fortune 500 inertia means no AI-driven explosive growth within five years
elidourado · x · 2026-10-20
In an "anti-debate" with Kelsey Tuoc, Eli Dourado argues explosive AI-driven economic growth in the next five years is unlikely, and offers an "error theory" of the bull case.
Bulls think in tasks: do X% of tasks Y% faster and output scales accordingly. Dourado instead starts from the theory of the firm:
- Most of GDP comes from large companies, which are deep tangles of complementarities (Leontief-style, layered with intangibles).
- Firms don't actually know their own production functions — no CEO fully understands how their company works.
- Middle managers can't drive firm-wide overhauls: ambiguous authority, no whole-firm insight, personal risk.
So existing big companies won't lay off 80% of staff for AI; growth will come mainly from new AI-native firms, which takes time.
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