Matt Green: nobody can predict AI more than 12-18 months out, and that worries him
matthew_d_green · x · 2026-10-21
Cryptographer Matthew Green pushed back on long-range AI forecasts, saying no one really knows what they're talking about beyond 12-18 months. Arvind Narayanan defended the "AI as normal technology" framing on safety and recent loss-of-control incidents, pointing to his essay with Sayash Kapoor, his Ezra Klein interview, and similar writing by Joshua Saxe and Nathan Lambert.
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