AI security surprise: cybercrime damages stay on trend, no big AI bump since 2022

kuza55 · x · 2026-10-20

Security practitioner Joshua Saxe argues the big surprise of the 2022–26 era for AI security policy is that cyber damages to the public haven't increased much due to AI — they've tracked the industrialization-of-cybercrime growth rate observed since 2015, with perhaps a small AI-causal bump. He suggests reasoning from cybercriminals' position to build intuition for why. kuza55 adds that someone already rich shouldn't expand operations and draw more heat.

Related event: Researcher: AI Has Not Materially Boosted Cybercrime Losses(3 posts)→

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