New paper warns of first major AI-enabled terrorism event as early as 2027-2028
StephenLCasper · x · 2026-10-20
A paper led by Max Kamachee and Stephen Casper (MATS / Harvard Belfer Center) argues a major AI-enabled cyber, bio, or chemical terror event could plausibly occur by 2027-2028. The pre-mortem argues outcomes hinge on developer, distributor, and government choices around deployment, safeguards, and detection — and that such an event would most likely stem from either a closed-weight model deployed without state-of-the-art safeguards, or an open-weight model whose safeguards can't survive downstream tampering. The authors issue 9 falsifiable predictions and outline 2 hypothetical scenarios; the Harvard Gazette has covered the work.
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