ARK's Tesla 2031 Model Sees $4,400 Base Case, Bull Case $5,000 on Robotaxi Bets
lasas · x · 2026-10-20
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest released results from its Tesla 2031 valuation model, based on 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations:
- Bear case: $3,300 ($1.2T revenue, 4.8M robotaxis deployed)
- Base case: $4,400 ($1.45T revenue, 8.1M robotaxis, 1M cumulative external Optimus robots sold)
- Bull case: $5,000 ($1.62T revenue, $20.4T market cap)
Even the bear case implies roughly a 9x return from current levels, with the valuation resting on mass deployment of Robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot.
Related event: ARK Raises Tesla 2031 Price Target to $4,400 on Robotaxi Bet(3 posts)→
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