Redditor breaks down P(doom) into four conditional probabilities, lands at 16.7%
Crayola_God · reddit · 2026-10-20
A Reddit user shares a framework for estimating the probability of doom within 10 years by multiplying four conditional probabilities: RSI happens (80%, citing OpenAI's claims), RSI yields ASI (40%), ASI is impossible to align (95%, since ASI is smarter than humans), and ASI is impossible to control (55%, arguing power shutoffs or even bombing data centers provide a backstop). The product gives P(doom) ≈ 16.7%. The author stresses these are guesses and invites others to share their own estimates, illustrating the popular chain-decomposition style of amateur AI-risk reasoning.
Related event: Reddit Users Estimate AI Doom Probability via Bayesian Multiplication(3 posts)→
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