Each capability level costs ~10x more because search picks easy wins first, says Papail
DimitrisPapail · x · 2026-10-20
Papail wraps up his argument: boundedness alone doesn't explain why each new level of capability or market share costs roughly 10x more to capture. The pattern instead looks like a property of a search-like mechanism, where easy wins come first and each further opportunity sits much deeper in a harder-to-explore tail.
More from AGI Musings
- Software engineer asks: why are we so eager to automate away each other's jobs? — Out-Live-In-Death · 2026-10-20
- The most important AI device of the next decade won't be a smartphone — VraserX · 2026-10-20
- Marc Andreessen mocks EA: 'EAs would literally kill a human to save 33 shrimp' — beffjezos · 2026-10-20
- AI filmmakers aren't replacing Hollywood — they're starting a new indie film movement — DavidmComfort · 2026-10-20
- Alignment researcher Alex Turner: shutting down rogue AI agents took over a week — Turn_Trout · 2026-10-20
- Midjourney CEO has an AI swarm rate every AI lab on YOLO vs FAFO vs FOMO — DavidSHolz · 2026-10-20