Tech Fund: $414B in AI ARR by year-end ex-China, 12% IRR on $931B capex
FinanceYF5 · x · 2026-10-20
Original Tech Fund estimate (quoted here): total AI ARR outside China reaches $414B by year-end. Breakdown: $187B from Anthropic and OpenAI (incl. cloud resale); $108B in AI-driven ad uplift for Meta and Google ($95B accumulated over 2.5 years); $66B from clouds excluding frontier lab resale; $33B from AI-native apps and SaaS; $20B from other sources (Grok, Gemini subscriptions, etc.). Assuming 6-year equipment life, the $931B cumulative AI capex implies 12% IRR.
Related event: AI Annualized Revenue to Hit $414B by Year-End: Tech Fund(2 posts)→
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