US AI lead over China is only ~6 months, IFP report finds; policy could double it to a year
fiiiiiist · x · 2026-10-20
A new 23,000-word IFP report, six months in the making, analyzes how Chinese AI companies' compute access and distillation of American models translate into the US-China capabilities gap, with an interactive model visualizing the US lead under different policy interventions. Key findings: (1) the US lead is currently only about 6 months; (2) using authorities already available, the federal government could roughly double it to over a year; (3) China's access to AI chips will roughly double.
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