AI wrote all my code for a year — here's why tech jobs didn't collapse
WhatNazisAreLike · reddit · 2026-10-20
A developer revisits his wrong prediction: AI has written all his code for a year, yet the "AI job apocalypse" hasn't arrived. He backs it with data:
The data
- FRED's software dev job postings index has modestly recovered since 2024 but remains below post-pandemic highs — interest rates killed tech jobs, not AI
- Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Apple headcounts are nearly back to 2022 levels; flat isn't great, but the first layoff rounds were rate-driven
- A Stanford SIEPR policy brief finds AI hasn't meaningfully disrupted AI-exposed jobs; the entry-level decline predates the 2022 rate spike
His five explanations
- Writing code was rarely the bottleneck — planning, user meetings, review, and business value were
- AI induced demand: many projects he shipped this year were impossible a year ago
- Companies are too scared to torch workforces full of domain knowledge
- AI adds review burden: 5,000-line PRs of AI slop are brutal to review
- Cybersecurity: replacing jobs requires prod write access, file edits, and DB permissions gated to experienced devs
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