Open-source leaderboard analysis: AI labs report benchmark scores 6.4% higher than independent testers

jakecoolguy · reddit · 2026-10-19

The creator of open-source leaderboard whatmodel.sh matched 611 comparisons across 180 models and 103 benchmarks from 1,629 published results, finding labs' self-reported scores average 6.4% higher than independent testers on identical tests: 375 pairs favor the lab, 216 favor independent testers, 20 are tied.

The largest gaps appear on SWE-bench Verified and MBPP (median +9.0, with labs higher in 92% of SWE-bench pairs), followed by ARC Easy, AIME 2024 and GSM8K; MMLU, Winogrande and ARC Challenge show little to no gap. The dataset (CC BY-SA 4.0) and code (MIT) are fully open with sources and licenses recorded.

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