Top forecaster Eli Lifland: ~67% chance of AI takeover if labs don't slow down
Puzzleheaded-King584 · reddit · 2026-10-19
Eli Lifland, AI 2027 co-author and the world's #2 most accurate AI forecaster, lays out his current view: broadly superhuman AI could arrive any year (10-15% by EO2027, 50% by EO2030); if labs don't slow down, AI takeover is 67%; conditional on takeover, human extinction is 40%, with many non-extinction worlds still involving mass deaths.
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