Will Bryk: task-automation surveys are fine, but converting them to GDP growth is nonsense
willcb · x · 2026-10-19
Commenting on a survey of which tasks AI can automate (Anthropic staff vs US adults), will argues the task answers are broadly correct but the model converting them into GDP growth numbers is 'completely nonsensical'. Transformative innovations beyond software look like drugs, devices, materials and semiconductors — longer lives, cheaper goods, continued Moore's law — which show up mostly as consumer surplus, not GDP growth.
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