willcb: 17% growth incompatible with high unemployment, his 2030 estimate is 3.5-5%
willcb · x · 2026-10-19
Responding to a 17%-growth-in-2030 scenario, willcb argues such growth would require massive knowledge-work AGI diffusion while consumer spending remains intact — 17% growth is incompatible with high unemployment. His personal 2030 range is 3.5-5%, and that already assumes full-computer AGI. He notes the only plausible path to 17% is one where growth stays low (<5%) before and after, with diffusion happening 'slowly then all at once,' citing mandatory COVID vaccines as the sole modern precedent.
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