willcb: 17% AGI growth in 2030 only works if it's <5% before and after
willcb · x · 2026-10-19
Continuing his critique of the 17%-by-2030 AGI growth forecast, willcb argues the only plausible scenario is one where growth stays under 5% in the years before and after, since knowledge-work AGI diffuses "slowly then all at once" — with covid vaccines, which were essentially mandatory, as the only real modern precedent for that pattern.
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