Analyst argues market is badly wrong on Micron: HBM to grow 7x with prices tripling
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-10-18
Investor JOBhakdi published a long thread arguing the market is catastrophically mispricing AI memory stocks like Micron ($MU).
Key points:
- Wall Street prices $MU at roughly 6x forward earnings, implying earnings implode by 2029 at the latest
- Citing Bloomberg Intelligence: HBM shipments could grow from 2.5B GB in 2025 to nearly 18B GB by 2030 (7x), while average prices climb from $13/GB to $35/GB — volume growth with price expansion
- HBM will make up 70% of Micron's revenue by then, meaning dramatic revenue growth with margins expanding roughly 3x
- The author says the "memory cycle" thesis is qualitative thinking clashing with quantitative analysis: getting the cycle-end wrong by 2 years already wrecks price predictions, and the market is off by 10 years
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