Pundit bets AI agents could reverse-engineer 50% of GTA 6 within 3 months of an executable dump

JasonBotterill · x · 2026-10-18

• The author predicts that once someone dumps the GTA 6 executable, AI agents could reverse-engineer 50% of the game within 3 months.
• The attached chart grounds this in prior work: frontier models byte-exactly reconstructed Halo CE (2001 Xbox) to 99.5% in 79 days, and MW2 (2009 PC) to 83% in 150 days using 600-700B tokens ($200-250k in API costs).
• Extrapolation for GTA 6: 50% at day 90, 85-90% over 365 days, at an estimated $1-3M API-equivalent cost.
• The bottleneck is dumping from console: the disc will likely force a new PS5 firmware that blocks current jailbreaks, and enthusiast teams may spend heavily on ultrafast inference just to be first.

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