Predicting GPT-7/8 as AGI by 2027-28, but hallucinations still a barrier
koltregaskes · x · 2026-10-18
The author revisits his prediction from a couple of years ago that GPT-7 or 8 would reach AGI by 2027 or 2028, which now looks fairly likely. However, he cautions that hallucinations, current accuracy levels, and still very jagged knowledge mean there is quite a way to go.
Commenting in the context of a SemiAnalysis meme about OpenAI bringing everything in-house, he argues that 100% in-house is clearly the way for labs—you need control of the full stack. In practice, only OS providers can do this, so Anthropic and OpenAI would need their own operating systems.
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