ChinaTalk: Saif Khan argues DUV controls could leave China with 100x fewer AI chips by mid-2030s
ChinaTalk · rss · 2026-10-17
ChinaTalk hosts Saif Khan — ex-CSET, NSC, and Commerce, now founding the Center for Technology and Statecraft — on the case for DUV lithography export controls.
- CTS's DUV report projects that stopping tool exports today could leave China producing 100x fewer AI chips than the US by the mid-2030s, making DUV controls America's most consequential lever over the AI balance.
- He argues supply-chain-grounded, forward-looking think tank research fills a gap in DC's AI policy ecosystem, and explains how such research translates into government policy.
- Understudied basics of the US-China AI balance remain: why the 8-month capability lead exists, and how much Chinese firms actually gain from distillation and RL.
- Robotics is framed as the next frontier of US-China AI competition, with security-vs-diffusion mindsets shaping policy; the episode also covers how AI is changing policy research itself.
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