DFB lasers headed for LED-style post-scarcity: 1GW global capacity by 2030
jwt0625 · x · 2026-10-17
The author argues the best outcome of the interconnect boom-bust cycle may be DFB lasers getting as cheap as LEDs. Current pricing: 10 mW per dollar for DFB vs 100 mW per dollar for LEDs; annual DFB shipments 30 MW vs 30 GW of LEDs. Assuming half of Rubin Ultra's NVL576 scale-up is optics, each token costs 0.1–1 J, 1 mJ of it laser energy — implying 1 GW of DFB capacity globally by 2030, one laser per human. The author expects no lasting shortage (except UHP): MOCVD capacity suffices, indium supply is ample, and 100 mW DFBs could drop to $10 or even $1.
Related event: DFB Lasers May Follow LEDs Into Cheap Commodity Territory(2 posts)→
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