FRI survey: experts across fields estimate 1-16% chance of AI catastrophe by 2100
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-16
In the Research FRI survey, all expert categories showed similar concern about AI risk. Estimates of catastrophe probability by 2100: computer scientists 2-15%, economists 2-10%, industry 1-9%, policy 3-16%.
Ben Todd notes respondents have massively underestimated recent AI progress and don't seem AI-pilled — expecting only 3% GDP growth in 2050 even with AI and robotics that can independently run companies — so he thinks these estimates are far too low. The lack of larger differences by background also undermines most bias-based narratives.
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