31 Tech Curves Visualized: Kurzweil's $1,000-Brain-Compute Call Missed by 400x
cpaik · x · 2026-10-16
Inspired by Ray Kurzweil's "The Law of Accelerating Returns" (2001), a developer built a trendline visualization plotting 31 investable technology curves on a log scale, so doubling times read straight off the line.
Key findings:
- Technology compounds faster than its markets: transistors per chip double every 2 years while chip-industry revenue takes 12; buyers keep most of the gain
- Adoption keeps accelerating: ChatGPT and Starlink doubled in under a year; internet users took 1.5 years, smartphones 2
- Kurzweil's 2023 call missed: consumer FP32 hardware fell about 400× short of a human brain's worth of compute for $1,000
- On a linear scale most curves look flat for years then shoot up — the intuition gap Kurzweil describes
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