Blogger Doubles Down on AGI Power Rankings as China Gets "Compute Mogged"
scaling01 · x · 2026-10-16
Blogger scaling01 revisits his earlier "Who builds AGI first?" rankings, responding to criticism that he placed Meta and Microsoft too high, and argues the picture is playing out — China is now getting "compute mogged," falling far behind in compute buildout.
His framework: the AGI winner is determined by current frontier models, resources to keep scaling compute and power, the strength of the research engine, and boldness for moonshot ideas. Google ranks ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic because it leads everywhere — scale, compute, data, resources, multimodal, research — except current text model capability; on short timelines OpenAI or Anthropic might win, but on the longer timelines he favors, Google can outscale them. Top labs get S++ rather than S because their positive feedback loops may let them run away with the lead.
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