Polymarket gives Meta just 3% to lead AI by year-end; Anthropic at 44%
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-16
After Meta's release of Muse Spark Open (816B parameters, 1M-token context), Polymarket odds for "which company has the #1 AI model at end of 2026" show Meta at just 3%, with Anthropic leading at 44%, Google at 39%, and OpenAI at 11% — a real-time read on how markets weigh the new open-weight release against frontier lab momentum.
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