EA Researcher Lays Out Why He's Skeptical of For-Profit Impact Ventures, Citing FTX and OpenAI
AaronBergman18 · x · 2026-10-15
EA-affiliated researcher Aaron Bergman explains his skepticism toward for-profit ventures pursuing impact:
- Even when for-profit impact works, founders often give up additional benefit, and "playing with fire" lowers expected value.
- With money back in the market, counterfactuals must now account for market forces.
- The EV denominator should include FTX and arguably OpenAI.
- These ventures may not rank above "noticing a niche and acting as a capitalist," which is fine but a different thing.
- Alternative protein startups haven't turned out great—partially predictable in EV terms ex ante.
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