10-year Treasury yields back near 5%: is this the end of the Great Stagnation, priced by AI capex?
deanwball · x · 2026-10-15
WillManidis shared a FRED chart of US 10-year Treasury yields (1980–2026), showing rates falling from 15%+ in the 1980s to a 2020 trough and now back near 5% — which he calls visible proof of the end of the Great Stagnation.
Quoted Blake Byers offers a modal prediction: AI capex returns will pull capital from treasuries into investments, spiking real rates and briefly panicking debt-heavy governments; within 3 years the market recognizes the returns are real, panic turns to euphoria, and the developed world adjusts to 5% growth as the new normal.
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