METR autonomy curve on linear scale: AI to handle month-long tasks by end of next year
flowersslop · x · 2026-10-15
flowersslop replotted METR's autonomy curve (human-equivalent task hours at 50% success) on a linear instead of log scale, revealing a dramatic exponential takeoff.
- The chart shows the frontier at 38 hours today (Oct 2026), up from Claude 3.7's 1h, GPT-5's 3.4h, and Opus 4.6's 12h, doubling roughly every 5 months
- Extrapolating the reference path, the 160-hour crossing lands mid-2027 — the author predicts by end of next year, AI models will autonomously complete tasks taking humans a month or more
- Fast/slow scenarios: Mar 2027 vs Nov 2028
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